The 2024 presidential race is tilting in favor of the Democrats and veteran pollster Nate Silver weighed in on whether Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris should invest in the predominantly Republican state of Florida.
Cloudy Outlook In Sunshine State? Florida, which was once a “quintessential swing state” isn’t one now and Trump emerged victorious in the state in 2016 and doubled his margin of victory in 2020, said Eli McKown-Dawson, an election analyst at Silver Bulletin, Silver’s forecast model, said in a post on Thursday. He noted that Republicans have supermajorities in both legislative chambers and the state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2012, he said.
A conclusion that Florida’s rightward shift makes it a lost cause for Harris and there it isn’t worth an investment of her campaign’s limited resources isn’t that simple, Silver, who founded polling analytics website FiveThirtyEight said. “Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high,” he said.
Harris now has a 21% chance of winning Florida’s 30 electoral votes, which is a one-in-five chance, Silver said, adding that it “isn’t bad, but it isn’t great either.”
Harris is the definite underdog in the state, the pollster said. He, however, pointed out a few things that could make the race more interesting than Harris’ 21% win probability would imply.
Light At End Of Tunnel? Silver noted that the Florida polls have tightened since Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. The former president’s lead in his home state has contracted from seven points on the day the pollster launched his Harris-Trump model in late July to 3.3 points currently.
Certain recent individual polls have also brought good results for the vice president, said Silver, citing the recent Victory Insights poll in which she trailed by a mere two points and a Bullfinch Group poll, in which she was behind by only a point. These may not be high-quality polls, he said.
Silver also noted that Harris trailed by four points in a survey by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.
“At this point, a normal-sized polling error that favors Harris could result in a Democratic victory,” the pollster said.
What makes the Florida race even more interesting is the fact that it is worth 30 electoral votes, which is twice as many as Michigan and more than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin combined, Silver said.
“It’s also why our model thinks Florida is the 7th-likeliest tipping point state — ahead of states like Nevada where the race is much more even but the number of electoral votes up for grabs is smaller,” he added.
Did You Know?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
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