Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, has evinced confidence as the potential 2024 election winner, not only with the voters but also with the elite group which is well-versed with the pulse of the markets and economy.
Likely Winner: Harris edged out Trump by 48% to 41% as the likely winner of the November election, according to CNBC’s latest Fed survey, the results of which were published on Tuesday. The survey contacted 27 respondents, including investment strategists, economists and fund managers, between Sept. 12 and 14. The two main party candidates faced off in the first debate televised live on ABC News and most post-debate polls showed that voters picked Harris as the winner.
The findings contrasted with the results of the late-July survey, which found that 50% sided with Trump and far less than 37% backed Harris to be the president. The July survey was done within two weeks of Harris entering the fray after Biden dropped out.
When Biden was still in contention, this group picked Trump as the most likely winner by a 48%-35% margin, with 17% saying they were unsure.
Who’s Better For Market, Economy: On the flipside, 56% of the respondents said a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market than a Harris term. The former president also came on top of the economy, with 44% saying he is a better candidate for the overall economy compared to 41% who said the same about Harris.
But 42% of the respondents said Harris would be better for the country versus 37% who said the same about Trump.
Naroff Economics President Joel Naroff said Trump’s policy proposals of broad-based tariffs and mass deportation, or even modest deportation of immigrants, would fan inflation and slow the economy into a recession, CNBC said.
Harris’ economic proposals are seen by strategists, fund managers and economists as better for budget deficits and trade policy. On the other hand, Trump is preferred for policy proposals that would impact business regulation, inflation, jobs and taxes.
Some hoped for a divided government, given their perception that the policies of both mainstream candidates were bad. A divided government is one in which no single party controls both the executive and legislative branches of the government.
The presidential election is seen as the sixth most concerning risk to the U.S. economy, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates too little or too late seen as the top risk.
When asked about the Federal Reserve’s independence, 100% of the respondents said Harris would respect it but only 42% said the same of Trump.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 Index, ended Tuesday’s session up 0.04% at $563.07, according to Benzinga Pro data. The exchange-traded fund has gained 19.2% so far this year.
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